Emaar Complex: Q2 26 Earnings call take-aways: Confident messaging on FY 26 dividend and P&L execution; sales strategy key to watch

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

CEEMEA Equity Research

07 August 2026

Emaar Complex

Q2 26 Earnings call take-aways: Confident messaging

on FY 26 dividend and P&L execution; sales strategy

key to watch

Emaar just concluded its Q2 26 earnings call with confident messaging on the FY

26 dividend (AED 1.0/share for Emaar Properties; implied yield at 8.7%),

cash collections and margin sustainability within UAE development

portfolio, and the defensiveness angle of the mall portfolio (base rents growing,

net turnover rent minimal impact; EBITDA margins intact at H1 26 levels of 88%).

The key point of debate is the UAE sales strategy where Emaar continues to

adopt a deliberate and strict approach on maintaining payment plans (80/20

in latest launch this week) and pricing (no discounts), while being measured

on new launches and inventory sales until demand trends and geopolitical

visibility improves. If the situation does not improve by Sep-Oct 26, Emaar could

revise its sales strategy but is not in a rush at this stage, which, in our view, could

imply another soft off-plan sales print in Q3 26E (Q2 26 at AED 2.3bn in UAE

pre-sales, down 90% YoY).

MENA Consumer and Real Estate

We summarise the key messages below:

Price (06 Aug 26): Dh13.60

UAE pre-sales drop in Q2 26 is not structural as management intentionally

moderated new launches after a strong Oct 25-Feb 26 run. Emaar aims to

maintain discipline on payment plans and pricing and this will not change over

the coming few months.

UAE sales backlog at AED 135bn as of Q2 26 provides solid visibility on

revenue and FCF generation over the next four years; in a scenario of no new

sales, Emaar can sustain a FY 25 UAE development revenue print of AED 36bn

over FY 26-29E with no downside risk to current gross margin print (H1 25 at

50%) over the medium term. Management sounded a confident tone on the

margin profile, with limited disruption to construction progress and minimal

if any downside risk to margins over the medium term as 90% of sales backlog

is contracted and have navigated supply chain disruptions seen over the last 4

months.

Management highlighted that the UAE sales backlog is seeing strong healthy

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