CyberAgent (4751): 3Q FY9/26 results: Media segment somewhat weak, game segment margin declines; revised guidance looks conservative

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

07 August 2026

CyberAgent (4751)

3Q FY9/26 results: Media segment somewhat weak,

game segment margin declines; revised guidance looks

conservative

Overweight

4751.T, 4751 JP

Price (07 Aug 26):¥1,499

Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,000

Somewhat negative: 3Q operating profit was ¥15.0 billion, below our estimate of

¥18.5 billion and the Bloomberg consensus estimate of ¥17.5 billion. We believe

the main factors included softening in the media segment's box office and pay-perview-related businesses, as well as a decline in game segment profitability. FY9/26

operating profit guidance was raised to ¥77.0 billion, below our estimate of ¥89.8

billion and the Bloomberg consensus estimate of ¥84.6 billion. While the figure

itself looks negative, we take into account CyberAgent's tendency to issue

conservative guidance and one-off factors, so we view this only somewhat

negatively.

3Q game segment sales were ¥61.2 billion, above our estimate of ¥55.3 billion,

but segment operating margin was 20.2%, below our estimate of 25.7%, as

sales grew for low-margin products including casual games. We also believe

growth in expenses such as labor costs depressed profitability to some degree.

This led to segment operating profit of ¥12.3 billion, below our estimate of

¥14.2 billion. Sales remain strong, mainly for titles including the overseas

version of Uma Musume Pretty Derby. Taking into account the profit

contribution of hololive Dreams, which has been confirmed to be a bigger hit

than we had expected, we find 4Q consolidated operating profit guidance of

¥9.6 billion conservative (our estimate: ¥18.8 billion).

Content investment expenses for the media segment's Ameba business at the

parent level have also risen, but this is already factored into our estimates. The

softening of earnings from pay-per-view- and box office-related subsidiaries

was surprising, but we view this as a one-off factor. Internet advertising sales

grew 8.9% YoY (our estimate: +5.5%) despite a high YoY hurdle. Overall

earnings trends are unchanged, and we look for cross-media expansion of titles

including Kagurabachi, for which an anime adaptation is scheduled to air in

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