Recruit Holdings (6098): 1Q results: Entering a new founding phase leveraging AI

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

07 August 2026

Recruit Holdings (6098)

1Q results: Entering a new founding phase leveraging

AI

Positive: 1Q operating profit was ¥255.4 billion, well above our estimate of ¥211.9

billion and the Bloomberg consensus estimate of ¥198 billion. Following on from

4Q, we view the results very positively. 1Q US ARPJ (average revenue per job

posting) in the HR technology US business rose 35% YoY (our estimate: +23%).

Management raised FY2026 US ARPJ growth guidance to 30% YoY (our

estimate: +20%), which we view as a conservative minimum target at this point.

The company is entering a new founding phase leveraging AI. We view the high,

accelerated growth rate very positively.

We need to confirm details later, but if we assume FY2026 US ARPJ grows at

least 30% YoY, in line with guidance, it becomes increasingly likely that 2H US

ARPJ will clear the previous year’s high hurdle, and growth would not slow or

could even accelerate. Management noted that demand for premium sponsored

jobs from SMEs has been stronger than expected, and some large companies

have unexpectedly adopted premium sponsored jobs given growing demand

for hiring efficiency. Accordingly, the 1Q EBITDA margin in the HR

technology business improved significantly from the year-ago 35% to 47.4%

(our assumption: 42%), close to the medium-term target of 50%. We get the

impression that growth has shifted up another gear. We also note the shrinking

decline in the volume of job listings.

The MMT and staffing businesses also generally did well. The MMT business

is shifting to a GMV-linked model in such areas as beauty and housing counter

orders, and it recently started transaction billing in the automotive area.

Profitability recovered as a result, with the 1Q EBITDA margin in this business

rising from the year-ago 31.6% to 36%.

Overweight

6098.T, 6098 JP

Price (07 Aug 26):¥13,165

Price Target (Dec-26):¥14,400

Japan Equity Research

Games, Internet, Services

Junko Yamamura AC

(81-3) 6736-8644

Ryo Nakagawa

(81-3) 6736-8643

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.