FX Technical Update: Sharp Whipsaw at Least Temporarily Derails the Bullish Dollar Setup; A New 155-160 Range for USD/JPY?

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

07 August 2026

FX Technical Update

Sharp Whipsaw at Least Temporarily Derails the Bullish

Dollar Setup; A New 155-160 Range for USD/JPY?

The DXY Index broke back into the 2025-2026 base pattern after the July

FOMC meeting, which clouded the technical outlook. On a near-term basis, we

are looking for the index to stabilize near a large confluence of support levels

at 99.19-99.415.

EUR/USD has rebounded from support in the 1.12 and 1.13-handles toward the

1.1614-1.1629 short-term resistance zone. Look for the pair to stall below that

resistance on a near-term basis. The amplitude of the recent rebound risks

derailing the bearish medium-term trend momentum that has been building in

recent months.

The EUR/GBP rebound from the 0.8468 Dec 2024 61.8% retracement and the

nearby Sep 2024-Mar 2025 base pattern highs shows the first signs of

momentum loss below key resistance at the 0.86008-0.86098 breakdown area.

We are watching for a short-term downside reversal pattern to form below that

area, which would maintain the bearish medium-term trend bias.

A sudden bearish impulse from 163.99 into the 154.78-155.04 support

confluence at least temporarily stalled the 2025-2026 rally without much in the

way of technical warning before the shift in market trend. Look for the 160.61161.19 resistance zone to mark a short-term ceiling for the market. A break

below the 155 area would signal a more lasting reversal in the medium-term

trend.

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