Plains: 2Q26 EBITDA Beat; Growth Projects Announced Across the Footprint

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Plains

2Q26 EBITDA Beat; Growth Projects Announced

Across the Footprint

Plains reported 2Q26 adj EBITDA attributable to PAA of $738mm, above the

$718mm JPMe and $716mm Street median, though the Street may have expected

a bigger beat post crude oil segment beats by peers. Crude oil matched the JPMe,

while NGL (+$21mm vs JPMe) and Other accounted for the delta. Plains

reaffirmed the 2026 adj EBITDA guide, which assumes a $80/bbl 2H26 WTI and

100-200mbpd Permian growth exit to exit. Separately, after previously raising the

2026 organic growth capital to $400-$450mm from $350mm, Plains announced an

expansion on Cactus III (75mbpd), Canadian gathering systems, and Permian

gathering projects. Plains also reduced maintenance capital guidance by $10mm

to $175mm, largely on timing of the NGL divestiture. On the call, we look for

incremental details on optimization opportunities in the current oil macro, Permian

growth and producer activity conversations, and momentum heading into 2027.

We would not be surprised to see underperformance today, with lighter than

expected crude oil optimization (given midstream peers results) and no guide raise

possibly falling short of a higher bar into the print.

Organic growth opps across the footprint. Plain’s Cactus III expansion adds

~75mbpd of capacity, increasing nameplate capacity to ~725mbpd, with

returns exceeding internal thresholds, inclusive of a ~ $40mm earnout. In the

Permian, an additional 120k of dedicated acreage supports Delaware/Midland

Basin gathering buildout and brings Plains’ total Permian acreage to ~5.1mm.

Up north, Plains’ focuses on strategic projects in the Clearwater and Duvernay

to improve connectivity and expand capacity, with potential for ~ $100MM of

growth capital over 24 months.

Crude oil lands near JPMe. Crude Oil adj EBITDA of $690mm landed near

the $696mm JPMe. On a YoY basis, Cactus III contributions, higher tariff

volumes, and market-based opportunities drove the uplift, partially offset by

Permian long-haul contract rate resets and a $20mm headwind from one-off

environmental remediation and higher property tax expense. NGL segment adj

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