Insulet Corp: Takeaways from Our Post 2Q26 Call with Management

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Insulet Corp

Takeaways from Our Post 2Q26 Call with Management

Overweight

PODD, PODD US

Price (04 Aug 26):$166.82

Medical Supplies & Devices

The short thesis on Insulet has been that organic sales growth would materially

decelerate in 2027+ as looming patch pump competition disrupts Insulet's sales

growth and takes share, while more intense efforts to shift into the pharmacy by the

competition could also pressure pricing. These challenges could still be ahead of

us, but Insulet has already started to see decelerating trends in the US ahead of these

potential challenges, with higher Type 2 new patient attrition rates beginning to eat

into sales growth. Margins remain excellent with another sizeable beat and raise

down the P&L, but this is being fully overshadowed today by the lowered US and

WW organic sales growth outlook for 2H26 with the US guide for ~15% growth

in 3Q implying 4Q sales growth of just +/- 10%. We believe much of the investor

angst today is with respect to management's early guidance comments on 2027,

which point to US and WW sales growth rates similar to better than implied 4Q exit

rates, i.e., ~10% in the US and ~15% WW. In our view, this range remains too high

to get investors interested in supporting the stock at these levels as it feels like a

better case rather than a conservative base case; said another way, the band-aid is

only half ripped off vs. what we would’ve liked to have seen.

Given investor sentiment, the lowered outlook, and the specter of looming

competition, we don't think 2027 growth trends that are essentially flat to up

vs. a still rapidly decelerating US growth outlook exiting 2026 is appropriately

conservative. It assumes that the actions management has taken on Type 2 don't

improve trends in 2027, and that new product launch growth is offset by new

competition. If the exit rate for the US in 2026 was stable, this would feel more

appropriate to us, but as it is sharply decelerating, we don't think investors will see

this as fully derisked. Until management can regain control of the narrative and

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