Siemens Energy: Q3‘26 Wrap-up and Model Update - MSD EBIT upgrades post a strong Q3. Reiterate OW and AFL status

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Siemens Energy

Q3’26 Wrap-up and Model Update - MSD EBIT

upgrades post a strong Q3. Reiterate OW and AFL

status

Overweight

ENR1n.DE, ENR GR

Price (04 Aug 26):€152.64

▲Price Target (Dec-27):€245.00

Prior (Dec-27):€235.00

Siemens Energy's results today were objectively strong and management’s tone

and message from the call should resonate with the prospective long-only

community. 'Discipline' was the word of the day (referenced 11 times on the call)

in relation to capacity expansion plan considerations, as well as in terms of

pursuing high quality orders at Gamesa and GS, and evidently, when revising

guidance only modestly higher. All of the above is paying off in ENR’s favour

already, hence the 18% beat to Q3 profits today. There have been two recurring

lines of questioning today: 1) For GS, investors have been asking about pricing

given the implied ASP, given the GW additions and the €bn additions (at a headline

level) have been in lockstep, which would imply that pricing has not increased.

However, this is a funciton of the order mix entering the GS backlog and not a

reflection of pricing normalisation - we confirmed this on our follow-up call with

the company and came away with the view that the current pricing situation

remains excellent. 2) The €1.1bn of “other” FCF is predominantly SLA cash

payments - given that the SLA’s went to 24GW from 25GW, the implication from

the higher than expected FCF is that the cash paid for those slots has increased quite

substantially, which is again indicative of higher prices and margins to follow,

beyond those already booked in the increasing backlog. Our PT increases to €245

(from €235) on higher estimates, offering c60% upside potential on a c16-month

view.

European Capital Goods

Phil Buller AC

(44-20) 3493-9403

Akash Gupta

(44-20) 7742-7978

Chitrita C Sinha

(44-20) 7742-7176

Jeremy Caspar

(44-20) 3493-5188

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Key Changes (FYE Sep)

Adj. EPS - 26E (€)

Adj. EPS - 27E (€)

Prev

5.20

6.54

Style Exposure

For our detailed assessment of the Q3 results and FY26 guidance upgrade, please

see here.

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