Saudi Aramco: Model update post 2Q reporting

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Saudi Aramco

Model update post 2Q reporting

Overweight

2222.SE, ARAMCO AB

Price (05 Aug 26):SRls26.74

Price Target (Jun-27):SRls30.00

We update our model following 2Q reporting (here). Headline revisions are

modest, with the key updates as follows:

Model update. FY26 NI/CFFO increased by 2% incorporating the 2Q beat and

higher 3Q refining margins assumptions. 2027+ changes are modest. On

distribution, at $85/bbl Brent, 8.0mb/d oil production, we continue to forecast a

broadly neutral FY26 surplus cash, implying special (performance-linked) divs

don’t return until 2028 (funded by FY27) but also that a higher outturn on price

and/or production has the potential to accelerate the resumption to 2027.

Valuation and TP. Our SAR 30 TP is based on a 50/50 blended DCF at LT $65/bbl

Brent and sector relative PER (2027E at $75/bbl) incorporating industrial/fiscal

premia to a global IOC median P/E of 13x.

European Oil & Gas

Matthew Lofting, CFA AC

(44-20) 7134-6301

Tianyu Wu

(44-20) 3493-1281

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Specialist Sales contact details:

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales European Energy

(44-20) 7134-1356

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Prev

Cur

Adj. net income - 26E ($ mn) 117,175 119,815

2.3%

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS ($)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

FY

2025A

0.11

0.10

0.12

0.10

0.43

Style Exposure

Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.