Judo Bank FY26 results preview: Testing the long-term cost of risk assumptions

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

06 August 2026

Judo Bank

FY26 results preview: Testing the long-term cost of risk

assumptions

JDO will report its FY26 result on Tuesday 18 August. We forecast FY26 PBT of

$164m, towards the lower end of the $163m-$169m guidance range. The key focus

will be on asset quality trends and the reasonableness of FY27 guidance (PBT

$210m - $220m, JPMe $213m), with the market's confidence in the at-scale cost

of risk assumption at a low ebb after the June update. Beyond this, JDO has

delivered strong lending momentum through 2H26 with APRA stats pointing to

GLA of ~$14.7bn. We expect some emerging pressure on deposit spreads to be

flagged in the outlook commentary, but we believe this is already reflected in

previous high level FY27 NIM commentary and our FY27 forecasts allow for a

NIM step down. We expect commentary to remain laser focused on asset quality

trends and demand for business credit growth as the impact of the Iran conflict

continues to flow through the economy. Recent major bank commentary suggests

robust business lending pipelines heading into FY27. While we can’t rule out

further negative surprises, risk/reward still appears favourable with JDO trading on

just 8.5x/6.5x FY27/28E PER and 0.55x P/BV for a 9.7% FY28E ROE, which

should continue to improve beyond this. Retain OW.

Result expectations: JPMe FY26 cash NPAT $113.8m, up 32% YoY. This is

driven by 24% YoY revenue growth and 8.5% YoY growth in opex. Strong

revenue trends reflect GLA growth of 18% YoY as well as better margins (up

20bps YoY). The key offset to PPOP growth will be higher credit impairment

charges (89bps/GLA, up from 65bps in FY25), which were flagged at the

trading update in June when the stock de-rated materially. We forecast FY26

profit before tax of $164.4m, which is in line with BBG consensus.

1) Credit quality front and centre: After the disappointing asset quality

update in June (which drove the stock down -45%), the market will be very

focused on this topic. The increase in 90 DPD and impaired loans to 3% of GLA

was driven by three key exposures that saw an increase in specific provisions.

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