2Q26 OP lower than our estimate with disappointing UAE M-SAM II sales; pipeline and 2027 visibility unchanged; maintain OW

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

06 August 2026

LIG D&A

2Q26 OP lower than our estimate with disappointing

UAE M-SAM II sales; pipeline and 2027 visibility

unchanged; maintain OW

Overweight

079550.KS, 079550 KS

Price (06 Aug 26):W695,000

Price Target (Dec-27):W1,100,000

LIG D&A’s 2Q26 results were in line with consensus but below our bullish view,

as a one-off dip in UAE M‑SAM II bookings (W99bn) amid prioritized domestic

deliveries drove sales/OP 9%/26% below JPMe (9.5% OPM vs. 11.7% JPMe)

despite solid top-line growth (+17% y‑y, led by exports +71% y‑y). Management

reiterated ~W500bn annual UAE M‑SAM II sales and pulled forward Saudi

M‑SAM II sales contribution to 2H26 (Iraq from 2027E); we cut export M‑SAM

II sales to W677bn (from W1.1trn) and 2026E OP by 15% but maintain our streethigh 2027E OP on multi-contract export ramp and sustained mid‑20% export

profitability. With capacity expansion now guided to ramp meaningfully from

2H27/early‑2028 following recent equity-funded CAPEX, we reiterate our

Overweight rating and a Dec‑27 price target of W1.1M, supported by confirmed

robust export margins and what we view as the strongest order pipeline among

covered peers.

2Q26 earnings review: LIG D&A’s 2Q26 sales/OP were broadly in line with

consensus but came in 9%/26% below our bullish estimates. Sales rose 17%

y‑y on stronger export volumes (exports +71% y‑y; domestic +6% y‑y, with

R&D/mass production +8%/+5% y‑y), while OP was W106bn (9.5% OPM vs.

JPMe 11.7%). The miss versus JPMe was primarily driven by export sales

coming in 27% below our estimate, as UAE M‑SAM II bookings were W99bn

in 2Q26 (vs. W120bn/W170bn in 4Q25/1Q26) amid prioritized domestic

deliveries. Excluding Ghost Robotics (OP loss W12bn vs. W13bn in 1Q26),

core OPM was ~11%.

Earnings checklist follow-up (please refer to table 1): Management

characterized the softer 2Q UAE M‑SAM II sales as one-off/timing-related and

reiterated annual UAE M‑SAM II sales of ~W500bn. On the positive side,

Saudi M‑SAM II is now guided to start contributing from 2H26 (vs. prior

guidance of a meaningful start in 2027E), while Iraq is expected to begin

revenue recognition from 2027E.…