Molson Coors Beverage Co: Beat 2Q26 EPS; Reiterated 2026 Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

06 August 2026

Molson Coors Beverage Co

Beat 2Q26 EPS; Reiterated 2026 Outlook

Our Initial Take: A Bit Better Than Feared, But Brand Volumes Largely InLine; Leaning More on MG&A. TAP’s 2Q26 results were a bit better-thanexpected at the top-line as shipment phasing was likely less of a headwind than we

had anticipated, although brand volumes were largely in line with expectations and

there are some puts & takes to the reiterated 2026 outlook. First, perhaps

underlying consumption is coming in softer-than-anticipated with the company

now expecting a “slight” overshipment in 2H26 in the U.S. (added the “slight”

language vs. general “outpace” language) and no longer referencing expected

improvement in market share performance relative to 1Q26 in the U.S. Second,

TAP is now expecting MG&A to decline in 2H26 vs. prior expectation for MG&A

to increase. On the earnings call, we look for more color around underlying demand

trends and the consumer environment in the U.S. and decisions around spending.

Molson Coors Beverage (TAP, Neutral) reported 2Q26 adjusted EPS of

$1.58, which beat JPMe/consensus $1.50/$1/52 by +5.3%/+3.2%. Relative

to JPMe, upside to EPS was driven by better-than-expected top-line (+$0.02 vs.

JPMe) and lower-than-expected MG&A (+$0.12 vs. JPMe), which more than

offset slightly softer-than-expected gross margin (-$0.02 vs. JPMe) and belowthe-line items (-$0.04 vs. JPMe). Net sales decline of -3.3% was better vs.

JPMe/consensus -4.3%/-3.5% with Americas -4.1% (vs. JPMe/Consensus

Metrix -5.8%/-4.5%) and EMEA & APAC -0.4% (vs. JPMe/CM +0.8%/

+0.3%). Constant-currency net sales decline of -3.6% was better-than-feared

vs. JPMe/CM -4.8%/-4.1%. See additional detail in Table 3. Gross margins of

37.3% (-255 bps YOY) compared to JPMe/consensus 37.4%/37.0% with

underlying COGS/HL +6.3% ex-FX due to cost inflation, including a -$40M

headwind from Midwest premium, mix (premiumization unfavorable to

COGS/HL but beneficial to margin), and volume deleverage, partially offset

by cost savings. Operating expenses were 23.1% of sales (155 bps higher

YOY) vs. JPMe/consensus 24.0%/23.1% with company’s underlying MG&A

…