Eli Lilly & Company: 2Q26 First Take: Another Significant Beat/Raise

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Eli Lilly & Company

2Q26 First Take: Another Significant Beat/Raise

This morning, LLY reported another qtrly beat (again driven by Mounjaro/

Zepbound) and raised guidance by $2.5bn at the midpoint. On the qtr, LLY reported

sales of $23bn (+$2.3bn vs cons) and EPS of $8.38 (+$2.37 vs cons). The top-line

beat was driven by Mounjaro, where intl sales came in $600mm above our forecast

and grew over $700mm sequentially, while the US business benefitted from a

rebate adjustment. Zepbound also beat (+$238mm) while Foundayo sales of

$98mm were in line with our estimates. And below the top line, gross margins were

well ahead while opex was in line leading to EPS of $8.38 (+$2.37 vs cons).

On 2026 guidance, LLY now anticipates sales of $85bn-87bn (+$2.5bn at the midpt

vs prior $82bn - $85bn), which represents ~32% top-line growth YoY and which

we see as driven by the continued strong Int’l ramp for Mounjaro, ongoing

Zepbound trends and with Medicare access for Zepbound also coming online this

year. Below the top line, LLY anticipates an OpM of 49.0%-50.5% (+200bps vs

prior) which translates to EPS of $35.50- $36.50 (+$2.78 vs prior ex-IPR&D).

Overall, we see today’s results and guidance as reinforcing the strong momentum

in LLY’s portfolio.

More broadly on the story, LLY remains our top pick with further upside to Street

numbers over the next several years (especially ex-US) as well as a series of

upcoming catalysts which we expect will extend LLY’s leadership position in the

$200bn+ incretin market. On clinical catalysts, we see data from the elora +

tirzepatide as most impactful (EASD in late Sept). And recent retatrutide phase 3

results, as well as strong monotherapy eloralintide data, sets up LLY with a range

of next-generation programs to improve upon Zepbound’s current best in class

profile. Reiterate OW.