Top Stories

Research evidence excerpt

Global Equity Research

International First to Market

05 August 2026

Top Stories

European Luxury Goods (Chiara Battistini)

Still in flux

Q2 26 showed a broad-based improvement for the luxury sector, with a 300bps sequential acceleration in growth rates, on

average. Positively, the strong wealth effect in the US and in pockets of Asia (Japan/Korea) translated into better momentum

for the space as a whole, including a bottoming in leather goods, showing that this segment is still relevant for consumers. At

the same time, polarisation of performance remained highly marked with three buckets of performance: the sharp

outperformers (all players in jewellery and high-end RTW), the sector averages (soft luxury with self-help to support growth:

Hermes, Prada and Ferragamo) and the laggards (F&LG segments at LVMH and Kering). While sector momentum was better

in Q2, it also, in our view, remains volatile and generally fragile, with the large soft luxury groups in particular still showing

flattish to negative volumes despite the very large wealth effect. With slowing credit card data in the US in July, growing

question marks on the sustainability of the Korean strength in the context of the recent markets pullback and tougher comps

into H2, we are mindful that the sector remains in flux at this point. In this context, we would stick to stories with ammunition to

navigate a volatile backdrop: Richemont, with its jewellery exposure and superior execution, remains our top pick, Moncler, in

our view, offers one of the best risk/rewards as we move closer to its peak season, Prada remains our favourite name in soft

luxury and Brunello and Zegna should continue to benefit from their small niche and favourable dynamics in high end-RTW. In

contrast, despite the YTD underperformance, we think it is still too early to argue for a sustainable re-rating of LVMH and

Hermes until fundamentals start to inflect more materially. Similarly, given continued macro uncertainty, high execution risk in

the turnarounds, and downside risk to numbers on our estimates, we remain UW on Kering, Burberry and Swatch.

| Nexans (Akash Gupta) (NEX FP, OW, PT €183.00), France

…