SUBARU (7270): 1Q results: Underlying earnings remain somewhat weak

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

SUBARU (7270)

1Q results: Underlying earnings remain somewhat

weak

Slightly negative: 1Q operating profit undershot our estimate and the Bloomberg

consensus estimate. While a decrease in shipments following the reopening of the

Yajima Plant after upgrades and repairs was in line with expectations, we are

somewhat concerned that both incentives and prices contributed to a decline in

profits. Subaru maintained FY2026 operating profit guidance, but it emphasized

the intensity of competition in the US, meaning its future pricing strategy will need

close watching. The company also announced that it will begin deliberating

whether to enter the captive finance business in North America by around 2030.

Operational factors somewhat weak: 1Q operating profit came in at ¥42.6

billion, roughly in line with our estimate (¥44 billion), but 27% below the

Bloomberg consensus estimate. We view this as an effective undershoot versus

our estimate, considering that the impact of unrealized inventory in 1Q was

¥16.4 billion YoY, while we had assumed ¥25 billion. Consolidated shipments

in 1Q totaled 220,000 units, a decrease of 24,000 units YoY, largely due to the

impact of single-shift operations at Yajima Plant. In 1Q, tariffs contributed

¥32.9 billion to profits YoY and forex rates contributed ¥13.5 billion. However,

operational factors such as volume differences due to shipment decline (-¥32.9

billion), price mix differences (-¥9.4 billion), and sales incentives (-¥24.9

billion) contributed to the downside, which is somewhat concerning. The

company emphasized the challenging business environment in the US and

continues to maintain a cautious stance regarding incentives and price

increases. FY2026 operating profit guidance remains the same at ¥150 billion.

Subaru to start considering sales financing business: On the same day,

Subaru announced the start of deliberations on entering the captive finance

business by around 2030 with the goal of strengthening its North American

operations. The company currently offers auto loans in partnership with

JPMorgan Chase, but aims to develop a captive finance business for more

…