Global Commodities: Feeling ‘22-ish?

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

05 August 2026

Global Commodities

Feeling ‘22-ish?

We now expect the Fed to hike rates in December (versus 3Q27 previously)

and September is clearly a risk if inflation heats up again soon.

Global Commodities Research

Since 1990, commodities have generated positive returns over each Fed

hiking cycle except the most recent one (Mar-22 to Jul-23), when the sector

sharply bucked the previous norm to fall by around 14% as Russian

supply risk premium unwound and headwinds to manufacturing

reinforced a more bearish commodities price reaction.

(44-20) 7134-8161

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

From a rates perspective, the June 1999 through May 2000 mid-cycle

hiking adjustment is a similar analogue to today. Commodities delivered

strong returns over this cycle, although that performance came from a

depressed starting place post the Asian Financial Crisis and was

significantly driven by OPEC-led oil market rebalancing.

While the Fed backdrop might look similar to 1999, the commodities

market environment is more akin to 2022, risking that an unwind in

supply-disruption premiums once again coincides with stiffer financial

conditions headwinds, driving a more depressive cooling across the

commodities sector over any upcoming hiking cycle.