French manufacturing sector remains weak

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Economic Research

05 August 2026

French manufacturing sector

remains weak

The Euro area June IP release is due on August 13. At the country level, France was

the first major economy to release data today. The data show a 0.1%m/m sa

increase in IP ex, construction, but this increase masks two distinct dynamics.

Manufacturing output contracted 1.1%m/m sa, after a similar drop the prior month.

The decline was skewed towards the volatile transport category, which fell 3.8%

(with both cars and non-cars falling sharply). Production also declined in a broadbased way across most other manufacturing categories. Manufacturing output ex.

transport had increased in March-April, with some indications of frontloading, and

the latest data partly represent payback. Meanwhile, the manufacturing decline in

June was offset by electricity production, which was boosted by the hot weather

and the need for air conditioning. The PMI survey continued to signal weakness

in the French manufacturing sector in July. The manufacturing output survey

declined further to 48.5 with new orders at a weak level. Large wildfires have

restrained production and transport locally, which could represent a modest and

temporary drag at the aggregate level. The German June IP data are due on Friday

and we expect a significant 0.7%m/m gain for manufacturing output. The German

data have expanded significantly in recent months, overall supported by better

domestic demand conditions and fiscal policy.

French industrial production

Quarterly data use latest monthly data available

Tot. x. constr.

Manufacturing

Food, bev., tob.

Coke & refined petrol. prod.

Computer, elect., other mach. & equip.

Motor vehicles, trailers & other transp.

Other manuf. prod.

Mining, electricity, gas, steam, water

Construction

Weights

100.0

75.3

12.8

0.1

10.2

9.1

43.2

24.7

4Q25

0.8

0.6

0.1

7.7

4.2

2.8

-0.7

1.4

-5.2

%q/q, saar

1Q26 2Q26

-1.2

3.0

0.7

1.3

1.0

0.2

-6.1

-18.9

0.8

1.7

3.4

4.1

0.0

0.9

-7.3

9.0

-4.8

-3.8

Apr-26

0.1

0.5

0.0

3.6

1.5

2.4

-0.1

-1.1

%m/m

May-26

-0.1

-1.0

-0.3

-11.7

-2.8

-2.1

-0.4

2.9

Jun-26

0.1

-1.1

-0.8

-12.0

-0.3

-3.8

-0.6

3.8

-0.1

1.2

-2.9

Source: INSEE, J.P.Morgan