Quick Take: Heineken 1H26 - solid momentum, especially in Asia, very big step up in cashflow

Research evidence excerpt

5 August 2026

Trevor Stirling

European Beverages

Heineken NV

Nadine Sarwat, CFA

Rating

Outperform

Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India)

Price Target

HEIA.NA

126.00 EUR

Specialist Sales

Alix Turner

Quick Take: Heineken 1H26 - solid momentum, especially in Asia,

very big step up in cashflow

Heineken published their 1H26 results this morning, comfortably ahead of consensus

expectations, especially on EBIT, and a very big step up in cash flow. Guidance for 2026E

remains unchanged at 2%-6% organic EBIT growth, with slightly higher effective tax rate, and

an increase in expected translation FX benefit. FIFCO acquisition still expected to be 2%-3%

accretive

Close Date

4 Aug 2026

HEIA.NA Close Price (EUR)

77.70

Price Target (EUR)

126.00

Upside/(Downside)

62%

52-Week Range

80.24/63.90

Consolidated volumes were ahead of expectations in 2Q up +0.9% organically (vs.

cons. -0.2%, Bernstein +0.7%), driven by strength in Asia Pacific led by Vietnam, India and

Indonesia, partly offset by the expected decline in Americas as the markets remain weak and

Heineken lost share in Mexico and Brazil (see here).

EDME

Sales came in ahead of consensus for 1H at +2.7% organically (vs. cons. +2.4%, Bernstein

+3%), driven by Vietnam, Ethiopia, India & Brazil. Price-mix was strong in all regions, slightly

lower in Europe as lower pricing was offset by negative channel mix.

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

11.4

1.9

5.6

15.8

EDME (%)

10.9

0.5

7.5

21.8

Relative (%)

0.5

1.4

(2.0)

(6.0)

EBIT grew +6.7% organically, well ahead of expectations (vs. cons. +3.3%, Bernstein

+5.1%) with a 55bps margin expansion driven by strength in all regions. Asia Pacific

(+17.7%) was the big beat led by the strength in Vietnam, Myanmar and Indonesia, Africa

(+30.8%) driven by top-line growth, Americas (+2.2%) with strength in Brazil, partly offset

by the US, Europe was solid (+0.6%). EPS (beia) was just ahead of cons. at €2.29 (vs. cons.

€2.28). Free operating cash flows saw a huge improvement growing to €1,381mn (from

€257mn last year) and a cash conversion ration of 97%, with better WCR and lower Capex.

1,630.85

FYE

Dec

Div Yield

2.4%

Market Cap (EUR) (M)

43,934

EV (EUR) (M)

61,076

…