Vonovia 1H26: Tracking slightly behind but FY guidance reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

5 August 2026

Valerie Jacob

Property/Real Estate

Vonovia SE

Marios Pastou

Rating

Market-Perform

Nikita Talwar

Price Target

VNA.GR

25.50 EUR

Specialist Sales

Sara Bellenda

Vonovia 1H26: Tracking slightly behind but FY guidance reiterated

Bernstein view. Another underwhelming quarter as development and recurring sales

businesses unsurprisingly continue to suffer from a weak environment (and a 1Q25 one-off)

with management expecting a recovery in 2H. Rental growth is also tracking behind but should

benefit from the Berlin Mietspiegel in 2H. In this context, positive to see that the group is

reiterating its FY26 guidance. Also positive to see that asset values are growing at 1.1% excapex and that €700m of disposals were achieved in 1H, both helping leverage metrics. The

conference call is at 1:00 pm BST (link).

Headline KPIs in line. Adj. EBITDA notched up 2.4% yoy to €1.5bn, on track to achieve

confirmed guidance of c.€2.95-3.05bn. Adj. EBT €962m (-2.6% yoy) and rental income of

€1.75bn (+3.4% yoy) were also aligned with full year guidance. Adj. shareholder earnings (adj.

EBIT minus minorities and core business tax expenses) fell -4.9% yoy to €772m (-7.7% on a

per-share basis). Management is confident in reaching 2026 guidance.

Close Date

4 Aug 2026

VNA.GR Close Price (EUR)

21.61

Price Target (EUR)

25.50

Upside/(Downside)

18%

52-Week Range

29.26/19.50

EDME

1,630.85

FYE

Dec

Div Yield

5.8%

Market Cap (EUR) (M)

18,335

EV (EUR) (M)

62,936

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

(11.9)

(3.4)

(12.5)

(21.0)

EDME (%)

10.9

0.5

7.5

Softer operating metrics. Like-for-like rental growth of 3.6% (1H25: +4.4%) came short of Relative (%)

(22.8)

(3.9) (20.1)

full year guidance but should benefit from the Berlin Mietspiegel in 2H. (market rent: 2.1%, Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

modernization driven: 1.2%, new construction: 0.3%). Vacancy rates notched up 20bp yoy to

2.3%.

Price Performance, 1YR

€32

Recurring Sales & Development are progressing more slowly in current market environment

and are expected to be more back-end loaded. EBITDA rec. sales is expected to show moderate

…