Antipodean Insights: Once more unto the breach

Research evidence excerpt

Antipodean Insights: Once more unto the breach

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

04 August 2026

Antipodean Insights

Once more unto the breach

• ‘Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more’ – Much like Henry V's Head of Australia and Japan Equity

battle-weary English army at the walls of Harfleur, the investment community Research

stands in readiness for the results season siege. With February setting new Jason Steed AC

records for on-day volatility, anticipation is high for another wild ride through (61-2) 9003-8609

August. The sharp decline in trading velocity over recent years (Figure 7) has jason.h.steed@jpmorgan.com

left the Australian market uniquely vulnerable to extreme share price moves Roisin Kiernan

during results season. With the 'active' share of company registers shrinking (61-2) 9003-6670

and a growing proportion of investors sensitive to short-term earnings roisin.kiernan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

momentum, it is little wonder we are seeing share price gyrations once reserved

for severe market dislocations (GFC, COVID).

• An end to the earnings winter, but not much of a summer – In our final Global EQ Performance | Jul-26

Results Dissector for the February season, we declared the Australian earnings

winter was finally at an end. While this view has largely played out, the uplift HSI Australia 13.1%

in the domestic earnings outlook (+8% YTD) pales in comparison to the global FTSE 100 US 3.5%

surge (+24% YTD). Since the end of February, oil prices have climbed sharply ASX 50 DM 3.1%

(Brent +26%), the RBA has raised the cash rate twice (+50bp), GDP per capita ASX 100 2.8%

for 1Q26 turned negative, and the Fair Work Commission announced a 4.75% ASX Industrials 2.7%

minimum wage increase.