Healthcare Facilities: SNF Monthly Tracker - July Occupancy Tops 80% for First Time Since September 2020

Research evidence excerpt

Healthcare Facilities: SNF Monthly Tracker - July Occupancy Tops 80% for First Time Since September 2020

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

04 August 2026

Healthcare Facilities

SNF Monthly Tracker - July Occupancy Tops 80% for

First Time Since September 2020

We are introducing our monthly review of SNF operational trends, which includes Managed Care and Facilities

ACour tracking of occupancy, facility-level quality scores, Medicaid supplemental Benjamin Rossi

approvals, and relevant newsflow or catalysts impacting the space. Across (1-212) 622-9603

occupancy, total levels increased +70 bps m/m to 80.4% to start July (vs monthly benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

avg of 78.4%), marking the first time that overall industry occupancy has eclipsed Lisa C. Gill

the 80% watermark since September 2020 (although data collection at the time was (1-212) 622-6466

impacted by COVID). For MSPPs, 2Q was a favorable approval backdrop for lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

PACS, headlined by formal approval of the FY2025 CA WQIP, which we estimate John Stansel, CFA

could add an incremental +$10M-$15M in EBITDA in 2026 and +$20M-$25M in (1-212) 622-0083

john.stansel@jpmorgan.com

2027 based on the growth in program size and expected cadence of payments. For

Cole HarrisPACS, this plays into our bull thesis on the company given the more durable rate

(1-212) 622-9068

environment in Medicaid for SNFs more broadly and mgmt’s focus on expanding cole.harris@jpmorgan.com

the company’s footprint in states with quality incentive programs, with room for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

some upside given the SNF exemption for MSPP phase-downs that will begin in

October 2027 (although we acknowledge that future program changes may be

more modest following the proposed provider tax phase-down requirements from