Mexico: Mixed-to-bad July survey data

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: Mixed-to-bad July survey data

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

04 August 2026

Mexico

Mixed-to-bad July survey data

• Capex intentions near post-pandemic lows, revisiting Trump 1.0 levels EM, Economics Research

• Trend Business Survey consistent with below-potential growth Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• IMEF’s PMIs are stuck in a rut around below 50, but improving gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• Little evidence of a solid improvement at the start of 2H26 BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

After last week’s strong flash 2Q26 GDP data, all eyes were on the monthly survey Santiago Homberg Saury

releases to assess the momentum in economic activity at the start of 2H26. In this (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

regard, the July sentiment indicators were mixed, particularly across INEGI’s July J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

surveys (including business confidence gauges, the manufacturing PMI, and trend Morgan Grupo Financiero

indicators). The IMEF surveys on services and manufacturing, however, painted

a slightly less pessimistic picture, with both gauges surprising to the upside — but

still below the neutrality threshold of 50.

Capex intentions were weak across the board, from manufacturing and

construction, to commercial activities and non-financial services. While the

aggregate capex index has remained relatively stable since the start of the year, the

level is consistent with those observed in early 2017, at the start of the first Trump

mandate and the first tariff threat. The disappointing result in today’s survey

already reflects the confirmation of further uncertainty regarding the USMCA

discussions, which are now entering the annual reviews phase. Unlike Mexico and