Japan Quant Strategy: AI Trade Reset Tests Japan Stocks‘ FX Shield — CTAs Unwind JPY Shorts as Macro Funds Keep Buying Japan Equities

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Quant Strategy: AI Trade Reset Tests Japan Stocks‘ FX Shield — CTAs Unwind JPY Shorts as Macro Funds Keep Buying Japan Equities

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

04 August 2026

Japan Quant Strategy

AI Trade Reset Tests Japan Stocks’ FX Shield — CTAs

Unwind JPY Shorts as Macro Funds Keep Buying

Japan Equities

1. NKY is in a sell-on-rallies environment Global Quantitative and Derivatives

Strategy

Although we made it through last week's big event-filled calendar and saw some AC Masanari Takada

temporary fluctuations in market sentiment, global markets have gradually

(81-3) 6736-8636

regained their risk-taking posture. In particular, in the global AI/semiconductor- masanari.takada@jpmorgan.com

related sectors, which saw a sell-off through July, there are scattered signs of a JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

rebound, including buying on dips. Tony SK Lee

(852) 2800-8857

The global “AI bubble” narrative also appears to be moving toward contraction tony.sk.lee@jpmorgan.com

after reaching its peak, based on mechanical extraction from the number of related J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

news reports (Figure 1). As AI momentum trading accelerated through June, there Robert Smith, PhD

was also a growing sense of caution over a possible “AI bubble”. However, these (61-2) 9003-8808

concerns remained within the range of fluctuation in line with market trends. robert.z.smith@jpmorgan.com

Currently, as momentum trading subsides, this narrative is also receding and the J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

short-selling trades in AI semiconductors that took advantage of this are also Khuram Chaudhry

winding down. We get the impression that the supply-demand balance is gradually (44-20) 7134-6297

solidifying.