JPM High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

JPM High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Morning Intelligence

not the place to be; Lamy

--Emerging Market Corporates; Hong

--Default Monitor: We now forecast 2026 HY bond and loan default rates of 2.25% apiece, which we

expect to rise to 2.75% (HY) and 4.50% (LL) in 2027; Jantzen

--Market Monitor: Leveraged loans outperformed HY bonds by the second widest margin since October

2024; Jantzen

--High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Market Brief: High-yield bond prices rallied by the most in 2 months

on Monday (+$0.26 d/d, -0.21% d/d HYG) alongside a 1.5% gain in the S&P 500, $4 decline in Brent, and

6bp slide in 10yr Treasury yields amid optimism around US/Iran diplomacy. Meanwhile, on the data front,

manufacturing surveys sent somewhat divergent signals in July but continued to point to expanding

manufacturing activity overall. The ISM improved, with a notable rise in its employment index, while the

PMI softened from a stronger level as output and new orders eased. Taken together, the surveys suggest

that factory growth remains solid at the start of 3Q, with labor demand showing signs of improvement.

This week’s focus will be on earnings with investors looking to take cues from various labor market data

(ADP and JOLTS) ahead of the US Employment release on Friday. High-yield bond yields and spreads

decreased 9bp and 5bp on Monday to 7.43% and 311bp, which rose 27bp and 11bp in July and are up

65bp and down 3bp YTD. For reference, spreads touched a post-GFC low of 295bp on January 22nd and a

YTD high of 373bp on March 30th. BBs (+0.26% d/d) underperformed CCCs (+0.31% d/d) and Single-Bs

(+0.33% d/d). And from a sector stance, Technology (+0.46% d/d) and Media (+0.42% d/d) outperformed

the index whereas Energy (+0.15% d/d) and Utility (+0.16% d/d) underperformed. The HY HPC subsector