JPM | US Energy: Energy Rises on Mixed Hormuz Signals, Ukraine Russia Attacks Near Post War High in July, Aramco on Energy, Copper Inflows 12yr High, Gold EM Selling, Trump on Visible Prices, DVN Asset Sales

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US Energy: Energy Rises on Mixed Hormuz Signals, Ukraine Russia Attacks Near Post War High in July, Aramco on Energy, Copper Inflows 12yr High, Gold EM Selling, Trump on Visible Prices, DVN Asset Sales

rategic inventories. Global economy remains resilient with an estimated second quarter GDP growth

of 2.3% and is expected to strengthen toward the end of the year and into 2027. Demand in the second half of the year is

expected to be around 2 million barrels per day higher than the first half.

• On a Reopening Timeline: If the Strait of Hormones was to open today, it would take up to 18 months at an average rate of

2.1 million barrels per day to replenish depleted inventories on top of demand.

• On How Quickly They Can Get to Pre-Conflcit Levels: Per-conflict levels, -- the production to pre-conflict level within

days to go to maximum sustained capacity, which is 12 billion barrels per day, we can bring it within three weeks if we are

asked

US Copper Inflows Surge as Market Awaits Trump Tariff Call (Bloomberg): Copper is pouring into the US at the fastest rate

in at least 12 years as traders position ahead of President Donald Trump’s decision on tariffs on refined imports. More than

200,000 metric tons arrived in July, the biggest monthly inflow on record in IHS Markit shipping data going back to 2014. The

import surge will add to vast US stockpiles that have accumulated over the past year, with combined Comex and London Metal

Exchange inventories exceeding 740,000 tons and LME data Friday showing another 110,860 tons in private storage in US ports.

• Spec Sales View: As a reminder, to keep this copper that has now flowed into the US on US shores, our team believes that the

US will have to pursue an escalating tariff regime via S232.