JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

04 August 2026

EM curves steepened in a broad-based move, reversing consecutive months Emerging Markets Corporate

of subdued flattening (link). The EM aggregate 10s30s curve bear steepened by Strategy

+4bp to 71bp over the past month, driven by both EM HY steepening by +4bp m/m Yang-Myung Hong AC

to 85bp and EM IG spread curve steepening by +4bp m/m to 65bp. The EMBIG (1-212) 834-4274

curve followed the overall bear steepening move, widening by +4bp to 74bp, with ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

consistent moves across all regions and issuer types. Over the past month, the UST J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

10s30s curve steepened +5bp to 53bp, while the US HG 10s30s curve steepened Alisa Meyers

by +1bp to 19bp. (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

CEMBI 10s30s curves also steepened +5bp m/m to 62bp, though with a mixed Dhawal U Mehta

dynamic of bull steepening in Latin America versus bear steepening in the rest (91-22) 6157 3779

of the regions. There was an interesting divergence of bear steepening in dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

commodities related issuers and China internet names versus bull steepening or J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

flattening in the other credits. Such differentiation may reflect macro uncertainty

on cyclical credits, with rate volatility adding to the curve's impact. We do not favor

long-dated bonds given the relatively modest level of the 10s30s spread on average

and our rate strategists’ expectation of further rise in UST yields.

The largest steepening over the month was led by SQM (+19bp), JBS (+15bp),

TENCNT (+13bp), PEMEX (+10bp), and INDON (+9bp). Meanwhile, the

largest flattening over the month was led by GUATEM (-16bp), VALEBZ (- 11bp),