Commonwealth Bank FY26 Result Preview: What‘s in the Federal Budget? Placing CBA on Negative Catalyst Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Commonwealth Bank FY26 Result Preview: What‘s in the Federal Budget? Placing CBA on Negative Catalyst Watch

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

04 August 2026

Commonwealth Bank Underweight

CBA.AX, CBA AU

FY26 Result Preview: What's in the Federal Budget? Price (04 Aug 26):A$180.72

Placing CBA on Negative Catalyst Watch Price Target (Jun-27):A$130.00

We are placing CBA on Negative Catalyst Watch ahead of CBA’s FY26 result Australia

on Wed 12 Aug. While we expect a strong result, we see a risk that CBA’s outlook

Australian Banks

commentary catalyzes concerns about the medium-term growth outlook for CBA

and the sector, given: 1) downside risk to consensus forecasts on mortgage growth; Andrew Triggs AC

2) increasing competition fears in lending and deposit markets; 3) impact of (61-2) 9003-8919

andrew.triggs@jpmorgan.com

interchange fee caps on non-interest income; and 4) macro uncertainties from the

Kelsey Bentley

Middle East conflict and second-order impacts from the Federal Budget. These (61-2) 9003 7482

pose modest downside risks to consensus forecasts, but also a potential valuation kelsey.bentley@jpmorgan.com

de-rating. CBA’s share price is up 5% since Budget night (in line with ASX 200, J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

despite the meaningful overhang) and valuations are back at stretched levels (26x

FY27E P/E, 3.7x P/BV for 14.4% ROE). This is despite significant impacts on

Key Changes (FYE Jun)

growth potential in the mortgage market and potentially negative implications for

Prev Cur Δ

macro trends given lower house prices and negative wealth effects. We do not Normalised Profit - 26E (A$ mn) 10,899 10,930 0.3%

expect material asset quality issues this quarter (given solid economic data), with Normalised Profit - 27E (A$ mn) 11,618 11,563 -0.5%