Ecuador: From tailwind to headwind

Research evidence excerpt

Ecuador: From tailwind to headwind

Lucila Barbeito Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A N(54-11) 4348-7229 29 July 2026

lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com

Agriculture is one of the sectors most directly exposed to excessive rainfall and flooding,

particularly in coastal provinces. Crops such as bananas, cocoa, rice, and corn are vulnerable

to waterlogging, crop diseases, lower yields, and disruptions to harvesting and transportation.

Under a strong El Niño scenario, assuming around 44% of agricultural hectares are

compromised, production losses could become significant, with economic losses estimated

at around US$1.5-2bn. An additional risk for the agricultural sector is the possibility that El

Niño-related rainfall extends beyond the typical seasonal window, affecting also future

planting decisions. This is particularly relevant for rice production, where the impact under

a severe scenario could extend beyond the August-December 2026 crop cycle and limit the

first rice planting season in 2Q26.

The impact on Ecuador’s seafood sector would operate mainly through the external sector.

Under a moderate event, the shrimp sector would not be severely impacted, but if the event

proves to be strong to severe, the impact would also be significant. Shrimp, Ecuador’s largest

export industry, is vulnerable to higher water temperatures, changes in salinity, lower water

quality, and disease risks. Assuming 50% of shrimp farms are affected, losses could reach

approximately US$1.3-1.6bn under a strong event, mainly through lower export volumes and

reduced revenues.

The tuna industry faces a different transmission mechanism, as El Niño alters ocean

circulation and fish migration patterns. While the impact is typically less immediate than in