Japan Equity Monthly Strategy: Is the semiconductor correction over? – Japan equity market outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Equity Monthly Strategy: Is the semiconductor correction over? – Japan equity market outlook

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

01 August 2026

Japan Equity Monthly Strategy

Is the semiconductor correction over? – Japan equity

market outlook

The global rally in AI semiconductor stocks that dominated April–June reversed Equity Strategy

ACcourse in late June, and the correction phase has persisted for over a month. Rie Nishihara

Semiconductor stocks fell 30-40% globally, but in Japan, non-semiconductor (81-3) 6736-8629

sectors, such as energy, financials, lagging AI stocks (including IT services), and rie.nishihara@jpmorgan.com

domestic demand names, rose, leading to a broadening in stock selection and JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

keeping TOPIX largely unchanged. On July 31, the Nikkei 225 took back one- Yong Guo, CFA

quarter of its decline during the correction phase in a single day. Earnings at AI (81-3) 6736-8623

yong.guo@jpmorgan.com

semiconductor companies continued to show strong growth, while position JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

unwinding, the main driver of the correction, was nearing its end. However, we

Mansi Das

believe that deteriorated market sentiment and tighter regulations on leveraged (91) 2261 573343

ETFs may mean it will take more time to rebuild positions. In Japan, we expect the mansi.das@jpmchase.com

earnings gap between AI and non-AI sectors, which widened due to higher crude J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

oil prices, to narrow in 2H. We think that corporate balance sheet adjustments and Mislav Matejka, CFA

capital flow catalysts will help the Japanese market broaden stock selection and (44-20) 7134-9741

transition to a healthier bull market. Cabinet approval of the Basic Policies for mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com