Fertiglobe - The Cost Curve Has Moved. The Stock Has Overreacted. Outperform

Research evidence excerpt

Fertiglobe - The Cost Curve Has Moved. The Stock Has Overreacted. Outperform

4 August 2026

Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.

+212 5 22 86 79 41

MENA Energy abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com

James HooperFertiglobe

+44 20 7676 6995

Rating james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

James Brady

Price Target +44 20 7762 5272

james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

FERTIGLB.UH 3.98 AED

Fertiglobe - The Cost Curve Has Moved. The Stock Has

Overreacted. Outperform

Being the lowest-cost producer isn't enough anymore. The global urea cost curve is Close Date 3 Aug 2026

steepening, and North America's gas advantage is closing the gap on the Middle East rather

FERTIGLB.UH Close Price (AED) 2.60

than the reverse, Henry Hub's resilience and Hormuz disruptions have redrawn the playing

Price Target (AED) 3.98

field. That favors US producers on relative momentum, even as it adds pressure to Gulf names,

Upside/(Downside) 53%

whose cost lead is narrowing rather than disappearing.

52-Week Range 3.85/2.35

Is Fertiglobe overly punished by markets? The current Gulf disruption is proving that ASIAX 1,897.76

resilience and asset flexibility beat cost advantage or scale. Fertiglobe has shown both — FYE Dec

Egypt and Algeria running at full capacity since 1Q, while UAE flexed down to 50-55% through Div Yield 4.5%

shipping constraints without breaking the model. Yet EV/EBITDA has compressed to ~5.7x Market Cap (AED) (M) 21,583

from an historical 9x premium versus regional peers like SAFCO. The market is pricing in cost- EV (AED) (M) 7,292

curve fear faster than earnings are actually deteriorating. Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 4.4 (3.0) (7.8) 0.4

We see more upside than downside at current prices. Urea corrected from April's highs ASIAX (%) 16.0 (4.0) 8.4 30.7