Imperial Oil: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Expecting a Less Noisy 2H26 as Buybacks Ramp

Research evidence excerpt

Imperial Oil: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Expecting a Less Noisy 2H26 as Buybacks Ramp

Arun Jayaram AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8541 04 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

work at Kearl, unplanned maintenance at Cold Lake in May, and heavy rainfall at

Syncrude. At Kearl, the company completed the K1 train turnaround ahead of schedule

and under budget, with the next planned Kearl turnaround not expected until 2029 on the

K2 train. At Cold Lake, IMO remains focused on ramping the Leming SAGD project

through the rest of 2026. The company continues to make progress on its EBRT field trial

at Aspen, with start-up expected early next year. At Syncrude, the company ’s 2Q26

volumes were impacted by extreme rainfall during the quarter, and the company expects

to complete its planned turnaround on the Coker 8-2 unit in 3Q26 (50 days of downtime).

With 1H26 downtime and weather impacts largely in the rear-view mirror, we expect

2H26 volumes to normalize, and we model gross production of 465 MBoe/d in 2H26 (vs.

417 MBoe/d in 1H26).

• Unplanned downtime impacting downstream throughput in 2026: IMO lowered its

downstream throughput guidance for 2026 by ~6%, and the management team attributed

the lowered guidance to three drivers: 1) higher unplanned downtime in the first half; 2)

prioritization of renewable diesel production at Strathcona given strong economics,

which resulted in reduced crude throughput; and 3) rail-yard congestion as renewable

diesel throughput ramped. In addition, management noted unplanned downtime at

Nanticoke in mid-July impacted the crude unit, with full operations expected to resume

by early August. The company intends to add additional rail handling capacity, which is