OlinHuntsman: Commodities Call

Research evidence excerpt

OlinHuntsman: Commodities Call

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

04 August 2026

OlinHuntsman

Commodities Call

Commodity chemical companies are reacting differently to the conditions ensuing Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity,

from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Lyondell’s 2Q:26 EBITDA was $2.1b versus Agricultural, and Paper & Packaging

$715m in 2Q:25. Dow’s 2Q:26 EBITDA was $2.3b versus $703m. Free cash flow for Jeffrey J. Zekauskas AC

the two companies should be up substantially in 2026-2027. By comparison, Olin (1-212) 622-6644

reported $191m in 2Q:26 EBITDA versus $176m in 2Q:25, and Huntsman reported jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com

$120m versus $74m. The annualized EBITDA of Dow and Lyondell are above their Katie Zhang

mid-cycle totals and the EBITDA of Olin and Huntsman are not. (1-212) 622-3262

katie.zhang@jpmchase.com

• There are no unusual regional manufacturing advantages in MDI as there Silke Kueck

are in polyethylene produced from low-cost US natural gas liquids. (1-212) 622-6503

Huntsman’s core MDI product line in its Polyurethane segment is a derivative silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com

of benzene and so of globally priced oil. MDI industry profits are tied to volume Lydia Huang

growth and supply/demand balances. MDI’s larger uses are for insulation in (1-212) 622-0086

construction and for seating in autos. A higher interest rate environment has lydia.huang@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

slowed construction activity, and auto production is likely to be lower in 2026.

The leader in the global MDI industry is Wanhua, which continues to add

capacity at low capital cost. Near-term profits are at risk because of rising

benzene prices, rising natural gas prices in Europe, and weak demand. Peter