US Retailing: Boss’ 2Q Global Brands Preview - Selective Setup; Downgrade PVH to Underweight

Research evidence excerpt

US Retailing: Boss’ 2Q Global Brands Preview - Selective Setup; Downgrade PVH to Underweight

Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-2630 04 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com

Underweight), (2) double-digit downside risk to FY28 Consensus at PVH (downgrading to

Underweight), and (3) VFC/UAA: elevated risk to FY28 Consensus “E” tied to continued

market share loss.

• The Two Wildcards to Watch: (1) CPRI: recent access points to full-price retail sales

restored to growth for the second consecutive quarter into 1Q27 by our work representing

the potential lead indicator of the outlet turn (3Q/4Q opportunity) and 200bps+ operating

margin recapture opportunity (vs. FY27E’s 5.5% base by our multi-year model). (2)

LULU: recent product/marketing focus on the “mindful athlete” and SKU

rationalization in stores (-15% cut) taken during the second quarter w/ CEO Heidi O’Neill

taking the helm in September.

II. Ranking Multiple Opportunities by Our Regression Analysis:

To assess stock dis-locations (notably tied to outsized volatility) – our regression analysis

across our Global Brands coverage (using a sum-of topline growth and adj. EBITDA margin

profiles relative to P/E multiples), points to rank order of upside to both the P/E multiple and

fundamental FY28 EPS power by our analysis at: AS, TPR, KTB, LEVI, RL, and CPRI.

Conversely, we note relative downside risk to FY28 EPS (& potential multiple) at NKE,

PVH, UAA, and VFC.

Figure 1: JPMe FY28 EPS vs. Consensus w/ Regression Upside/Downside Flags

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. Note: RL, TPR, and UAA reflect FY29 EPS.

III. Key Callouts On Calendar-2Q26 EPS:

(1) Raising #’s Above Consensus: RL, AS, TPR, KTB.

(2) Modelling In-Line Results vs. Consensus: BIRK, CPRI, LULU, UAA.