Autohome (ATHM US & 2518 HK): Downcycle drag remains; capital return is the floor

Research evidence excerpt

Autohome (ATHM US & 2518 HK): Downcycle drag remains; capital return is the floor

Asia Pacific Equity Research

03 August 2026

Autohome (ATHM US & 2518 HK)

Downcycle drag remains; capital return is the floor

We expect Autohome’s 2Q26 results (earnings release scheduled for 20 Aug) to China

demonstrate the continuing downcycle pressure on revenue. CPCA retail sales fell Head of China Equity Research

23% yoy in June, taking total 1H26 volume down 20% yoy. We expect Autohome’s and Co-Head of Asia TMT

total revenue to decline 32% yoy in 2Q26, a further deceleration vs the 28% decline Research

yoy in 1Q26, with media revenue narrowing sequentially, while lead generation Alex Yao AC

revenue worsened. Nevertheless, despite the near-term top-line pressure, we view (86 21) 6106 6505

management’s shareholder return commitment as intact and stepping up: the newly alex.yao@jpmorgan.com

authorized US$400mn buyback following the prior fully utilized US$200mn SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001

program + annual dividend of Rmb1.5bn (on JPMe) implies a total shareholder Nancy Liu

return yield of 23%. With the stock still trading below net cash, we believe this (86 21) 6106 6343

nancy.liu@jpmorgan.com

return floor should limit downside into 2H26. Maintain Neutral, with Jun-27 PTs of SAC Registration Number: S1730524090001

US$20/HK$38, based on 13x 2027E P/E. J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

• 2Q26: Revenue pressure but margin improvement. We see no recovery in Limited

the China auto industry so far, with China passenger vehicle retail falling 23%

yoy in June, although up sequentially 6% from May (due mostly to seasonality),

taking 1H26 volumes to 8.7mn units (-20% yoy) (link). Sales channels

deteriorated in parallel, with 77% of dealer stores missing 1H26 sales targets