G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Matt Pheasant AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

matthew.v.pheasant@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report - 4th August

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 2026

04 August 2026

JPY Dip buyers returned yesterday emboldened by the failure to claim 155, the backdrop of the IMF

currency regime definitions and the fact that the earlier intervention episode this year exhibited

bold action on three consecutive sessions only. Is that it? Many certainly think so and we are

now challenging key short term levels as we challenge the trigger levels for the last wave /low

achieved on the first wave with the 200d at 158.02 and cloud bottom at 158.85. I personally do

not think they are done, given the planning and trouble they have gone to with co-ordination and

size employed, Bessent will know they cannot afford to let JPY bears get re-emboldened

because if this fails then we could go into a full blown crisis. Flow wise RM and DHF turned

sellers of JPY again yesterday while SHF continue to buy as positions get reduced, we have not

seen any flow trends from local RM yet - it would go without saying this would bolster our

conviction. Stay short USDJPY.

CHF Remain short CHF, largely versus JPY, but looking to add to my franc shorts by fading dips in

USDCHF closer to 0.8000. Short CHF positioning has grown in the HF market over the last few

months, although interestingly they have been decent CHF buyers the last 5/7 sessions.

Meanwhile focus remains on the large systematic CHF long out there, which was further added

to towards the end of July, although note that they have been CHF sellers the last two sessions.

Domestically, inflation had little impact on FX yesterday, largely expected given the sources

article last week stating the SNB will be on hold until 2027.