EM FX Daily Report - 4th August 2026. Tue Aug 04 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 4th August 2026. Tue Aug 04 2026

Matt Pheasant AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nmatthew.v.pheasant@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 04 August 2026

EM FX

RUB Spot broke up through 80.00 yesterday, perhaps triggered by oil weakness, but more likely a

reduction in exporter supply as we enter a new month. Running a little long usd as seasonality

doesn't bode too well for Rub. Waiting for MOF fx purchase projections tomorrow.

ZAR Back after a couple of weeks away, and it feels like both a lot and very little has changed at the

same time. For USDZAR, the most important development was the SARB decision on the 23rd,

when they failed to hike rates despite market expectations. That triggered a sharp move higher

in the pair, but the move has since reversed—mostly due to the dollar sell-off following the JPY

intervention. I don’t have a strong view on the ZAR at the moment, but if anything, it feels like

that without the JPY move, USDZAR would be closer to 17.00 right now. So, if anything, my

bias is to fade any major weakness in the pair from here. On flows, we surprisingly saw better

USDZAR supply yesterday, mainly from RM accounts.

TRY USDTRY continues to trade along with the current depreciation path around state bank offers at

47.5600. While there were better volumes since Friday around state bank offers on back of the

move in JPY, we actually saw decent chunk of inflows yesterday after the lower than expected

CPI print.

Our Türkiye view is unchanged and we remain long TRY. A near term change in the fx

framework still looks unlikely, with real TRY appreciation remaining central to the disinflation

and financial stability strategy, and lower than expected July CPI reinforces that view. Oil

remains the main risk.