Diamondback Energy: 2Q26 Flash: From Humble Roots to the Million Boe Club; Stock Reaction-Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Diamondback Energy: 2Q26 Flash: From Humble Roots to the Million Boe Club; Stock Reaction-Neutral

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

03 August 2026

Diamondback Energy Overweight

FANG, FANG US

2Q26 Flash: From Humble Roots to the Million Boe Price (03 Aug 26):$198.75

Club; Stock Reaction-Neutral

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

JPM View: Stock Reaction - Neutral. We anticipate a fairly neutral reaction to the Arun Jayaram AC

print given relatively elevated expectations ahead of the quarter as we believe (1-212) 622-8541

investors were already dialing in the prospects of a full-year guidance range. That said, arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

the company delivered the goods in a strong operational and financial quarter. FANG Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

delivered an upbeat quarter with 2Q26 CFPS of $11.83 topping JPMe/STe by +3%/ (1-212) 622-3795

+4%. 2Q26 volumes were 4% above our forecast, largely driven by higher natural gas pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

volumes, which were 6% above expectations. Closely watched oil volumes of 525 Jack Jerusalmi

MBo/d were a touch ahead of JPMe/STe of 523 MBo/d. The upside surprise relative (1-212) 622-6552

jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

to our model was largely driven by lower-than-expected production costs, which fell J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

by 3% sequentially and were 9.4% below our forecast ($10.96 per boe vs. JPMe of

$12.10 per Boe). The only fly in the ointment was a softer-than-expected 3Q26 oil

guide of 522 MBo/d at the midpoint (517 to 527 MBo/d) range, which implies a -0.6%

sequential decline and was slightly below JPMe/STe of 527 and 526 MBo/d. That

said, we do note management's general conservatism around overall guidance. The

company bumped its full-year capital efficiency expectations to 48.9 from 48.7 (MBo