Daily Economic Briefing: July mfg PMIs dip, services expected to lift

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: July mfg PMIs dip, services expected to lift

Nora Szentivanyi Global Economic Research J P M O R G A N(44-20) 7134-7544 03 August 2026

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

• Buoyed by the AI investment cycle, Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI remained near five-

year highs, prompting us to revise up our 2H26 GDP growth forecasts to 5.0%q/q saar

from 3.2% but down from 1H’s torrid 8.4% pace; the upgrade reflects stronger investment

spending, resilient exports, as well as firmer domestic demand. Korea’s July PMI was

also strong, with respondents noting strength in the semiconductor and auto sectors, in

line with our view of a solid start to 3Q manufacturing activity.

North Asia* GDP components

%2q, saar, both scales

5 Exports Investment 25

Consumption

3 10

2 5

-5

0 -10

23 24 25 26

Source: National sources, J.P. Morgan. Details on request. *Defined as Korea and Taiwan.

• The US July SLOOS suggests that bank lending is becoming moderately more

accommodative on balance, with no pickup in financial stress. Net tightening shares were

near zero or negative across most loan categories, consistent with bank loan growth

accelerating from 4.0%oya in June 2025 to 7.4% in June 2026. The July report also

included questions comparing current standards with the midpoint of their historical

ranges. Banks reported somewhat looser conditions than a year ago, though standards

remain toward the tight end of their ranges outside C&I lending. C&I standards were at

or below their historical midpoints, while stronger demand from large and middle-market

firms partly reflected increased investment in plant and equipment.

• In the Euro area, we continue to track modest consumption growth in 2Q, with risks

skewed to the upside from stronger services spending.