Strategic acceleration encouraging though, with key pipeline readouts only in 2028, focus now likely to turn to launch execution & near-term earnings downside

Research evidence excerpt

Strategic acceleration encouraging though, with key pipeline readouts only in 2028, focus now likely to turn to launch execution & near-term earnings downside

ow Consensus, largely due to Exdensur and Blenrep. dhitee.goel@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Given the downside we see to Consensus earnings, we remain Underweight with a

Khushi Bihani

Dec-27 PT of £17.00 (c. 9.5x 2026E P/E), although we are encouraged by the strategic

(91-22) 6157-4103

acceleration undertaken by GSK and the financing of this acceleration through the khushi.bihani@jpmorgan.com

cost savings program. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

• We forecast 5% CER Sales growth and 7% CER Core EPS growth in 2026, James(44-20) 3493-0019D Wantling

with Core EPS growth significantly 4Q weighted. We forecast 5% CER james.wantling@jpmorgan.com

Sales growth in 2026, at the upper end of GSK’s guidance range, underpinned J.P. Morgan Securities plc

by 14% CER Specialty Medicines Sales growth, 3% CER Sales growth for

Vaccines and a 5% CER decline in General Medicines. While we expect this Specialist Sales contact details:

to support Core EBIT growth of 9% CER, the dilution from Nuvalent financing Marjan Daeipour - Specialist Sales -

costs, a 170bps headwind, leads us to forecast Core EPS growth of 7% CER to European Healthcare

178p. Given the consolidation of Nuvalent from 3Q onwards and a tougher (44 20) 7134-1329

marjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com

base in 3Q on both Sales (Vaccines one-time benefits + General Medicines

rebate adjustments) and on OpEx (4Q base benefits from £300m of supply Key Changes (FYE Dec)

chain charges and SG&A charges in 4Q 2025), we expect Core EPS growth to Prev Cur Δ

Adj. EPS - 26E (p) 179.44 178.05 -0.8%

be more significantly 4Q weighted with JPMe for 2% Core EPS growth in 3Q Adj.