UCB: Focus on upcoming competitor readouts in HS and bime execution

Research evidence excerpt

UCB: Focus on upcoming competitor readouts in HS and bime execution

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

04 August 2026

UCB Overweight

UCB.BR, UCB BB

Focus on upcoming competitor readouts in HS and Price (03 Aug 26):€221.40

bime execution Price Target (Dec-27):€300.00

Following the H1’26 results and upgraded FY’26 guidance (see our take here), we European Pharmaceuticals &

make 5% upgrades to our 2026 Revenue forecasts and 2-3% upgrades for 2027-30. Biotechnology

Our updated FY’26 Revenue forecast of €8,710m (+15% CER growth) is c.2% Richard Vosser AC

ahead of pre-Q2 Company Consensus and in line with the implied midpoint of the (44-20) 7742-6652

updated guidance (low-teens to mid-teens at CER), with the upgrade largely due richard.vosser@jpmorgan.com

to Bimzelx, Briviact, and Cimzia, as well as the improved FX outlook (-2% from J.P. Morgan Securities plc

-3%). On Bimzelx, we forecast FY’26 sales of €3.4bn, c.3% ahead of Consensus, Sophia Graeff Buhl Nielsen

reflecting our expectations for continued strong volume growth to more than offset (44-20) 7742-3918

sophia.graeffbuhlnielsen@jpmorgan.com

net pricing pressure due to the expanded 1L coverage at one of the PBMs in H2’26. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

On adj. EBITDA, we now forecast €3,003m (+20% CER growth) for 2026, c.4% Zain Ebrahim

ahead of Consensus and also in line with the midpoint of the updated guidance (44-20) 3493-1163

(mid-teens to low-twenties at CER), with minor 1-2% changes from 2027-30, as zain.ebrahim@jpmorgan.com

our Revenue upgrades are broadly offset by our expectations for higher R&D J.P. Morgan Securities plc

expenses in the mid-term. On Core EPS, we now forecast €11.69 for 2026, c.8% James D Wantling

ahead of Consensus, and we make 3-5% upgrades to our Core EPS forecasts from (44-20) 3493-0019