CEEMEA Monthly Wrap - July: Not Strait forward at all

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Monthly Wrap - July: Not Strait forward at all

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

04 August 2026

CEEMEA Monthly Wrap - July

Not Strait forward at all

• MSCI EMEA rose 1.2% in July, ahead of MSCI EM (-3.3%) and MSCI CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

World (0.5%). YTD, MSCI EMEA is up 1.3% behind MSCI EM (18.6%) Strategy

and MSCI World (9.4%). In July, MSCI EMEA rose 1.2% ahead of MSCI David Aserkoff, CFA AC

EM (-3.3%) and ahead of MSCI World (0.5%). The biggest story for global (44-20) 7134-5887

markets was the unwinding of the chip/AI trade with KOSPI down -16.1% in david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

July and -22.3% from the peak on 22 June. The NASDAQ dropped -3.2%, its J.P. Morgan Securities plc

single worst month since March with the S&P marginally lower, down -0.1% Inga Q Galeni AC

despite an overall strong 2Q earnings season. The second biggest story for (27-11) 507-0335

inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

markets was the FOMC meeting and press conference on 29 July which saw J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

10 year yields move up 27bps to 4.74% on the month with 30 year yields ending

the month at 5.27%, their highest since June 2007. Fed Chair Warsh was unable

to marry his declared goal of price stability to raising interest rates and hinted

that the PCE metric historically seen as the key inflation metric might change

in January or might not. Overall, US 2 year yields gained 12bps to close at

4.29%. The biggest story for geopolitics remained the US-Iran conflict where

the Straits remained shut but Iran targeted more countries (Egypt was its latest

target) with its missile attacks and both Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Houthi

militias in Yemen attacked Saudi targets. The Houthis declared that Saudi ships

could not pass through Bab al-Mendeb.