Taylor Wimpey: Model update post H1, lowering FY26 estimates by~17%

Research evidence excerpt

Taylor Wimpey: Model update post H1, lowering FY26 estimates by~17%

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

04 August 2026

Taylor Wimpey Underweight

TW.L, TW/ LN

Model update post H1, lowering FY26 estimates Price (31 Jul 26):78p

by~17% Price Target (Dec-27):70p

Following Taylor Wimpey’s H1 results, we update our model. As a reminder, European Building & Construction

management revised its completions expectations downwards and now expects UK and Infrastructure

completions ex JVs to be between 10,600 and 10,800 (previously 10,600-11,000 Zaim Beekawa AC

excluding JVs). Other elements of guidance include: Blended UK average selling (44-20) 7134-4175

prices are expected to be around 1% higher than last year, due mainly to regional zaim.beekawa@jpmorgan.com

and product mix. H2 2026 Group net operating expenses are expected to be broadly J.P. Morgan Securities plc

in line with the first half, with net finance costs for the full year of c.£25m. Year-end Elodie Rall

net cash is expected to be c.£250m, after approximately £100m of cladding-related (44-20) 7134-5911

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

cash outflows. Furthermore, the company states that market conditions are set to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

remain challenging for the remainder of the year, with underlying pricing below Jamie Smallbone

prior year levels and full year build-cost inflation of c.3-4%. Overall, we lower our (44-20) 3493-7015

top-line estimates by ~2% as we now forecast UK completions of jamie.smallbone@jpmorgan.com

10,664 (previously 10,838) and UK total ASP of £338k (previously £339k). From J.P. Morgan Securities plc

an earnings perspective, we now look for Adj. Operating Profit including JV of Manshi Sinha

£275m (7.2% margins), 17% lower vs. our previous estimate of £332.7m (8.5% (91-22) 6157 5111

margins).