Bayer; Coloplast; Fresenius Medical; GSK; Smith & Nephew; UCB: EU Healthcare Sector Specialist Commentary Pharma • Biotech • Medtech

Research evidence excerpt

Bayer; Coloplast; Fresenius Medical; GSK; Smith & Nephew; UCB: EU Healthcare Sector Specialist Commentary Pharma • Biotech • Medtech

s a £1.2bn upgrade, largely reflecting the inclusion of risk-adjusted

Nuvalent sales of £0.9bn as well as £0.5bn sales for the B7H3/B7H4 ADCs at a 50% risk adjustment, only partially offset by the

removal of camlipixant. We also raise our margin forecast from ‘27-30 by c. 30-100bps, reflecting the benefit from the cost

savings program, starting in ‘28. That said, we remain below Consensus on Core EPS by MSD in 2027E, where we see limited y-

o-y margin expansion and Nuvalent financing costs leading to our forecast of around 2.5% CER Core EPS growth, followed by

more significant 7-10% Core EPS downside from ‘27-30E. From here, we see the launches of Exdensur and Blenrep as likely to

become of increasing focus, together with the upcoming launches of bepirovirsen, Jideytro and neladalkib in 2027, with our 2027

launch forecast for GSK currently c. £0.2bn below Consensus, largely due to Exdensur and Blenrep. Given the downside we see

to Consensus earnings, we remain Underweight with a Dec-27 PT of £17.00 (c. 9.5x 2026E P/E), although we are encouraged by

the strategic acceleration undertaken by GSK and the financing of this acceleration through the cost savings program.

**UCB(OW): R Vosser model update - note. Post H1 & upgraded FY’26 guidance, we make 5% upgrades to our 2026 Revenue

& 2-3% upgrades for ‘27-30. JPMe updated FY’26 Revenue forecast of €8,710m (+15% CER growth) is c.2% ahead of pre-Q2

Co Cons and in line with the implied MP of the updated guidance (low-teens to mid-teens at CER), with the upgrade largely due

to Bimzelx, Briviact, and Cimzia, as well as the improved FX outlook (-2% from -3%). JPMe Bimzelx FY’26 sales of €3.4bn is