Japan: Forecasts for 2026 Q2 first preliminary GDP estimates

Research evidence excerpt

Japan: Forecasts for 2026 Q2 first preliminary GDP estimates

Japan: Forecasts for 2026 Q2 first preliminary Global Markets Research

GDP estimates 31 July 2026

Economics - Japan

We forecast a real GDP growth estimate of +2.2% q-q Research Analysts

annualized Japan Economics

Uichiro Nozaki - NSC(1) Strong private consumption, particularly for durable goods; (2) capex supported by the uichiro.nozaki@nomura.com

AI boom; (3) a temporary rise in service exports +81 3 6703 1284

Kyohei Morita - NSC • We forecast a real GDP growth estimate of +2.2% q-q annualized for 2026 Q2. In kyohei.morita@nomura.com

addition to increases in private consumption and capex, a temporary increase in +81 3 6703 1395

service exports also likely contributed.

• We expect the rise in tensions in the Middle East to have affected imports and exports

of goods as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp decline in public

inventories as a result of the release of oil from national reserves.

Q2 real GDP: We forecast real GDP growth estimate of +2.2% q-q annualized

The Cabinet Office is due to release the first set of preliminary GDP estimates for 2026 Q2

(Apr–Jun) on Monday, 17 August. We expect to see a real GDP growth estimate of +0.6%

q-q (+2.2% annualized). (Here and below, all figures are on a real basis unless otherwise

noted.)

We estimate that real GDP rose on: (1) somewhat strong private consumption, particularly

for durable goods; (2) an increase in capex supported by the global AI and semiconductor

boom; and (3) a temporary rise in service exports. We also think the rise in tensions in the

Middle East affected the economy in the form of lower imports and exports of goods and a

sharp decline in public inventories as a result of the release of oil from national reserves.