Japan industrial production: June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Japan industrial production: June 2026

Global Markets Research

Japan industrial production: June 2026 31 July 2026

Economics - Japan

Research Analysts

Ongoing rise in SPE output, buoyed by AI boom Japan Economics

Yuki Ito - NSCDownside risks for summer/autumn 2026 include: (1) Kumamoto yuki.ito@nomura.com

earthquake; and (2) constraints on volumes from Middle East situation +81 3 6703 3867

Kyohei Morita - NSC • Industrial production rose +1.3% m-m in June, up for a third straight month. The global kyohei.morita@nomura.com

AI boom provided tailwinds, with SPE production adding impetus. +81 3 6703 1395

• The survey of manufacturers' production forecasts points to solid manufacturing

activity through summer. At the same time, we also note downside risks such as: (1)

supply chain disruption caused by the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake; and (2) supply

constraints on the volume side stemming from the situation in the Middle East.

June industrial production: Up m-m on tailwinds from AI boom

Japan's industrial production in June 2026 was up 1.3% m-m, up for a third straight month

and above the Bloomberg median consensus forecast of a +1.0% increase (Figure1).

Items such as semiconductor production equipment contributed to the increase in output (

Figure2). Real exports of SPE (nominal exports ÷ export prices) have been rising,

particularly to Taiwan, and we think the global AI boom may have bolstered output in this

category (Figure3).

Turning to shipments (demand), domestic consumer goods shipments fell 0.7% m-m in

June, marking the first decline in three months. Real retail sales (down 4.5% m-m,

adjusted for inflation and seasonal variation by Nomura) also showed weakness,

particularly in fabrics, apparel, and accessories and in household appliances (Figure4).