INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

AUGUST 4, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Strong set of markets overnight with Broadening + AI/Tech Strength. Asia seems back to firmly

trade more US T+1. Oil rebounding following extended selloff while Iran denied talks with US though

confirmed negotiations with Oman on SoH continuing.

• Our view is that the AI/MOMO factor correction is over but on the way up, the surprise could be

higher thematic dispersion. This involves pockets of Software (on commoditization of LLMs) +

Hyperscalers after they dramatically improved the narrative around CAPEX and ROI.

• For those tracking AI demand/adoption, JPM APAC AI Implementation survey (>300 responses)

suggests that AI investment is already mainstream and average AI spend as % of expenses plus

capex will continue to grow in the next 12 months.

• Scepticism on whether JPY strength will last is already emerging. Past interventions did not last

and despite the massive scale of this intervention—c. $100bn on Thurs and Friday alone —USDJPY

is up this am.

• Unless the underlying macro environment changes materially, consensus is that JPY selling

resumes. Long-end JGB yields don’t truly reflect Japan's fiscal position (i.e. are too low vs other DM

markets) and policy rates are 50bp-100bp too low. Meanwhile, the MoF resources are finite and

Takaichi's aggressive pursuit of growth through fiscal policy is ultimately inflationary.

• Of note, JPM Strategists kept targets unchanged: 3Q26 160, 4Q26 164, 2Q27 164

• Near term, the big picture remains supportive — Global Mfg PMI still expansionary (52.7 in July) +

US nowcaster for US 3Q GDP spiked to 6.2%; Q2 earnings tracking strong; and Schlegel’s TPM

triggered a buy signal about a week ago. The risk to hedge now is likely Fed credibility / long-end