EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil - Oils - Utilities - Infrastructure

Research evidence excerpt

EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil - Oils - Utilities - Infrastructure

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 04 August 2026

BP, ARAMCO, US MAJORS

Ian Mitchell

+44 207 134 1356

ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

Key Newsflow

• TODAY - BP Q226

• TOMORROW - Nothing

• CRUDE / EU GAS - front-end Brent closed -7.1% yesterday and is trading +1.6% this morning at $85.1/bbl, +1.1%

from the European close last night and +2.5% from this time yesterday morning. EU TTF Month Ahead gas closed -1%

at €58/MWh

• BP - Overall numbers are strong with Q226 NI 12% ahead of consensus raised post TS, and CFFO 4% ahead, but this was

largely expected after the strong Shell beat, FY26 CF news on the margin is a small negative (FY26 capex up $0.5bn on

timing of farm downs, divestments down $1bn) but not hugely material, new priorities hint at future acceleration of strategy

including portfolio rationalisation and cost cutting. Neutral/ very small negative

• ARAMCO - Solid 2Q sees MSD% earnings beat; CC focus on ongoing operational resilience (research available).2Q

earnings beat consensus/JPMe by 6% (adj NI $33.4bn). Gearing rose modestly q/q, but led by WC phasing, absolute remains a

robust 6% (low end of long-term 5-15% range). Impressive delivery on Aramco’s advantaged operational flexibility. Base

dividend is unchanged; in line with expectations (5.2% yield). Amidst a still uncertain regional backdrop, we expect investor

focus during the conf call (8am UK/10am KSA) on asset integrity and ongoing access to market optimisation capabilities in

light of reported risks of a second shipping blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

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