Nedbank Group Ltd: Positive 1H26 print, better-than-expected core and a better H2 in sight – First Take

Research evidence excerpt

Nedbank Group Ltd: Positive 1H26 print, better-than-expected core and a better H2 in sight – First Take

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

04 August 2026

Nedbank Group Ltd Overweight

NEDJ.J, NED SJ

Positive 1H26 print, better-than-expected core and a Price (03 Aug 26):27,677c

better H2 in sight – First Take Price Target (Dec-27):38,121c

Our Take: Nedbank’s headline earnings were flat YoY at R8.4bn for the six CEEMEA Financials

ACmonths to 30 June 2026, in line with our expectations and the recent 5-month Baron Nkomo

trading update. However, when excluding the Ecobank Transnational (27-11) 507-0385

Incorporated (ETI) base effect, headline earnings growth was strong at +12%, well baron.nkomo@jpmorgan.com

ahead of our expectation of mid-single digit growth, reflecting robust operational J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

performance in the group. Diluted HEPS increased by 2% to 1,803 cents, supported Pooja Ruia

by the run rate impact of share buybacks executed in 2025. ROE was 15% (H1 (91-22) 6157-3688

pooja.ruia@jpmchase.com

2025: 15.2%), remaining above the group’s cost of equity of 14.0% (up YoY when J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

excluding Ecobank). The interim dividend was declared at 1,052 cents per share,

up 2% YoY, with a payout ratio of 57%, tracking marginally below JPMe and

consensus expectations of +3% in FY26. The CET1 ratio was 12.6%, above the top Style Exposure

end of the through-the-cycle target range (11.0-12.5%). Management expects

underlying growth momentum across all businesses to continue in H2 2026 (JPMe

+7% FY26 EPS growth vs consensus at +5%) and targets ROE to remain above

15% in 2026 (JPMe 16% vs 15% consensus), with a medium-term target of 17%

by 2028, which we think is achievable. Overall, we view this update positively and