Lufthansa: Q2 miss with FY guidance lowered on increased fuel volatility. Expect shares to be down today

Research evidence excerpt

Lufthansa: Q2 miss with FY guidance lowered on increased fuel volatility. Expect shares to be down today

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

04 August 2026

Lufthansa Neutral

LHAG.DE, LHA GR

Q2 miss with FY guidance lowered on increased fuel Price (03 Aug 26):€9.23

volatility. Expect shares to be down today Price Target (Dec-27):€8.00

Our Take: Q2 miss with full-year guidance lowered. We expect the shares to be European Transport & Logistics

ACdown today. Lufthansa reported Q2 EBIT at €383m, -6% below versus company Harry J Gowers

consensus €408m (JPMe €329m). This was driven by higher fuel costs versus our (44-20) 7134-7522

forecasts and also a negative result for ITA and SunExpress in the equity harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

investments line. Q2 Network RASK was +6.4% (higher versus JPMe +5%) driven J.P. Morgan Securities plc

by APAC and premium, with ex-fuel CASK slightly better than we forecast and Alexia Dogani

impacted by negative capacity growth. Full-year guidance has been lowered with (44-20) 3493-3791

alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

EBIT now expected at €1.7-2.2bn (previously expected significant growth). The J.P. Morgan Securities plc

high-end of which would still be in-line with prior guidance. The lower guidance

Bhavpreet S Batra

is due to recent volatility in fuel, lower capacity, plus shorter booking cycles in the (91-22) 6157-5046

passenger airline business, which is making forecasting increasingly difficult for bhavpreet.batra@jpmorgan.com

Lufthansa. However, we would note that consensus is already towards the middle J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

of this range. 2026E FCF guidance is unchanged with lower capex offsetting lower Shikha Khurana

profit. Although the short interest is lower than a few months ago, recent investor (91-22) 6157-5022