HSBC Holdings plc: Strong Wealth, Transaction Banking performance, but higher costs expected and buyback below expectations

Research evidence excerpt

HSBC Holdings plc: Strong Wealth, Transaction Banking performance, but higher costs expected and buyback below expectations

Kian Abouhossein AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4575 04 August 2026 C A Z E N O V E

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

HSBC Holdings plc (Neutral; Price Target: 1,380p)

Investment Thesis

While we rate HSBC’s management highly and believe the group is on the right strategic

path over the longer term, we see the investment case as balanced with the stock rated

Neutral and trading at a premium to UK/European peers ‘27, although with ongoing

uncertainties including from the Middle East. We see the stability in the rate environment

and improving volume growth driving Banking NII CAGR of 4% 25-28E, supported by

hedge reinvestments in the near term. The outlook for Fee income is also positive supported

by structural Asia trends, with total income growth expected at c4% 28E (vs 5% guidance)

and c5% CAGR 25-28E. We see a disciplined trajectory for costs with the Group’s $1.5bn

simplification plan ahead of plan and the cost re-allocation plan driving more investment

into high growth areas (e.g. Wealth), driving cost CAGR of c4% 25-28E. Wealth remains

a strong growth engine, which we forecast at a c12% CAGR, while we continue to highly

value the Group’s deposit gathering franchise. While CRE market trends are becoming

more encouraging, risks remain, which we see as keeping CoR at the high end of normalised

levels in the near term. Overall, we see underlying ROTE at c18-19% annually across 26-

28E (vs targets of 17% or better), with buybacks likely to restart with 2Q and a total yield

of c8% 27-28E

Valuation

Our sum-of-the-parts-based Dec-27 price target for HSBC of 1,380p is calculated using a