Arbor Realty Trust: Longer Road to Resolution; We Increase Buy-Back Estimate, Cut Dividend

Research evidence excerpt

Arbor Realty Trust: Longer Road to Resolution; We Increase Buy-Back Estimate, Cut Dividend

Richard Shane AC North America Equity Research

(1-415) 315-6701 04 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

richard.b.shane@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We rate ABR as Neutral. Our rating is largely driven by our

view that the risk/reward on the stock is more balanced today

given the company’s current discounted valuation. ABR

continues to face persistent credit challenges as elevated non-

accruals, loan modifications, and a growing REO portfolio

continue to weigh on both NII and distributed earnings. That

said, the stock currently trades at ~0.47x book (vs. ~0.70x as of

March 31), which we believe largely prices in these concerns.

That said, we remain cautious on the credit trajectory, as higher-

YTD 1m 3m 12m for-longer rates and suppressed transaction volumes could

Abs -33.5% -2.1% -34.9% -53.9% extend the timeline for resolving troubled assets.

Rel -53.6% -1.6% -40.9% -88.7%

Valuation

Company Data

We have a Dec 2027 price target of $5.50. Our price target is

Shares O/S (mn) 212

52-week range ($) 12.57-4.73 based on a 0.475x (formerly 0.50x) multiple on our YE27 BVPS

Market cap ($ mn) 1,096.40 estimate of $11.16 (formerly $11.01), implying a 15.3%

Exchange rate 1.00 annualized total return. Our target multiple is reflective of the

Free float (%) 93.7%

3M ADV (mn) 4.64 company’s ongoing credit challenges, concerns over the

3M ADV ($ mn) 26.5 underlying fundamentals of its borrowers, and the current higher

Volatility (90 Day) 50 for longer short term rate environment. We do acknowledge that

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 1|2|2 the company continues to make progress on asset resolutions,

however.

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)